SOME INSIGHTS INTO THE U.S./IRAN MEDIATION

From a mediator’s perspective the U.S.-Iran mediation was not exceptonal.

First, who led the sessions? After six weeks of war, Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan attempted to assume the role, but ultimately Pakistan emerged as the key mediator. Pakistan has long maintained a policy of neutrality with Iran. Russia, China, and the Gulf countries were not seen as neutral, as they were aligned with either the U.S. or Iran. Yet, while seen as neutral, Pakistan could gain as an important diplomatic actor by convening negotiation between the world’s largest economy and one of the Middle East’s most important countries.

Second, how did the sessions go? Pakistan acted as a “shuttle mediator” facilitating a two-week ceasefire and then hosting talks in Islamabad. The mediation was the first meeting between the two countries in over a decade. At the Serena Hotel delegates stayed in separate rooms while Pakistani officials shuttled proposals back and forth.

Third, what were the demands and interests? Going into the mediation, the U.S. demanded Iran’s nuclear stockpile be eliminated, navigation be secured, and their be regional de-escalation. Iran demanded withdrawal of U.S. bases in the region, all sanctions lifted, frozen assets released, compensation for war damages, and recognition of its nuclear enrichment program. Overall, the U.S. was seeking limitations while Iran sought status.

Fourth, why did the mediation fail? After 21 hours U.S. representatives said the mediation failed because Iran would not commit to abandoning its nuclear program, while Iranian negotiators blamed the U.S. for the breakdown.

A mediator might say both parties lacked the “readiness” to settle, that is, continuing the conflict was seen as preferable to a settlement.

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Fred Jandt is the author of “How to Survive a Mediation,” available now at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and wherever books are sold.